2026 / Cloud seeding & rain

Bias-Adjusted Attribution Estimation for Rainfall Enhancement Trials

arXiv · preprint

Open arXiv preprint ↗
SCOPED EVIDENCE NOTE
Preprint · 2607.21991v1

This record describes the specified arXiv version, not a journal publication. Weatherhill’s evidence note is a bounded source check and does not imply peer review. Subsequent versions may change the analysis.

What this source contributes.

This preprint reanalyzes the 2013–2018 Oman ionization trial using an observation-specific bias adjustment. It reports 6.68% attributed enhancement (bootstrap 95% interval 2.21–12.88%), compared with 12.52% from the earlier estimator applied within the same analysis. The aggregate is defined over positive-rainfall downwind gauge-day observations, relative to modeled natural rainfall. This is a methodological reanalysis with overlapping authorship, not an independent field replication. A 10% effect lies within the reported interval; comparison with a commercial performance guarantee also requires matching its contractual metric, conditions and evaluation period.

Scope of our check
Original arXiv v1 full text, posted 24 July 2026: abstract, trial definition, attribution model, Section 5 and Table 3. Metadata and key results checked on 11 October 2026. This record describes a preprint and does not imply journal peer review. No independent reanalysis of the underlying trial data was performed.

Primary material consulted

  1. Primary source 1
  2. Primary source 2

This is a bounded reading note. It is not independent replication, a full systematic review or an endorsement of every conclusion in the paper.

Questions to take to the paper

  • Was allocation randomized, and was the analysis specified first?
  • What cloud and weather regime was eligible?
  • Is the claimed change a local event, a seasonal total or a model estimate?
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Bibliographic provenance

Identifier, authors, title, posting date and version checked 2026-10-11 against the original arXiv repository record. The DOI field is intentionally empty. This preprint is kept distinct from any later journal version.

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2020research
Cloud seeding & rainEvidence note

Quantifying snowfall from orographic cloud seeding

Katja Friedrich; Kyoko Ikeda; Sarah A. Tessendorf; Jeffrey R. French; Robert M. Rauber; Bart Geerts; Lulin Xue; Roy M. Rasmussen; Derek R. Blestrud; Melvin L. Kunkel; Nicholas Dawson; Shaun Parkinson

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 10.1073/pnas.1917204117

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