LITERATURE PROGRAM

Rainfall attribution

Follow cloud interventions and causal inference without using a rainfall claim to validate the first fog product.

Attribution comes before extrapolation.

The rainfall reading program examines intervention studies and the statistical choices behind enhancement estimates. It is a literature and methods program. There is no weatherhill rainfall installation or weather-control service.

The next quantities to define

  • Keep the intervention mechanism and eligible weather regime explicit.
  • Distinguish independent replication from a new estimator applied to the same trial.
  • Retain the exact rainfall population and averaging rule behind each percentage.
  • Inspect allocation, controls, spatial dependence and uncertainty before comparing estimates.
Rainfall reanalysis does not decide the first collector product. The immediate engineering question remains the measured D-versus-C optical effect in FogLab.

Research context

The July 2026 Oman reanalysis reports a 6.68% estimate with a 95% interval of 2.21–12.88%. RET’s April 2026 announcement offers a conditional 10% guarantee. The interval includes 10%; the two numbers need matching endpoints and conditions before comparison. Read the sources, definitions and limits of this comparison.

  1. Bias-Adjusted Attribution Estimation for Rainfall Enhancement Trials
  2. Nudging a Pseudo‐Science Towards a Science—The Role of Statistics in a Rainfall Enhancement Trial in Oman
  3. Evaluation of the First Negative Ion-Based Cloud Seeding and Rain Enhancement Trial in China

Search weatherhill

Search papers, tools and the project.